Commercial Real Estate Recovery or still headed Down???

A very intense question with views from both sides. Daily I am emailed with views stating that the worst is behind us followed by emails that state the worst is still to come. The problem with the cycle in today's time is that it is not a repeat of anything we have seen in the past. Most Economists can track changes and recovery by looking at historic information, this time however is more difficult, it does not appear to be taking the same approach as recessions before. An article from Recon just stated the economy is beginning to show signs of improvement while only 15 minutes later I received an email from sperry Van Ness Commercial stating "Commercial Real Estate is like a slow motion train wreck". I believe that there are some signs of improvement, however my personal opinion is that the worst is yet to come for some industries. Has anyone stopped to think about true unemployment lately? We are reporting figures of 8-10% but actually that does not account for the millions who have run through the cycle but have not found employment yet, they are treated as employed and lost in the mix. I talked to some people recently who believe actual unemployment to be in the upper teens as high as 17%.

Commercial Real Estate per the ICSC State of the Industry has not seen the bottom. Projections indicate that national and upper end retail will not bottom out for a possible 18 months followed by an additional 6 months before recovery begins. We are continuing to see large amounts of foreclosure across the nation and the number continues to rise almost daily. I believe that the Vulture Opportunities will begin to surface in the next 6 months and cash will again be king. I am starting to see opportunity and as others believe it is only going to increase in value added opportunities and short sell. As for myself, I believe all industries will experience cap rate and price adjustments in 2010, how much is yet to be determined.

About Me

Here is a little about what I do and who I am. I have worked with Steve Eustis Co. for 6 years and EM Property Management (General Manager) for 3 years.

Steve Eustis Co. -
- Working with buyers and sellers for investmenet properties, owner user situations, portfolio management, and future goals for each client or partnership. I focus primarily on local properties but have the ability and have worked with properties spanning all across Texas as well as neighboring states. I travel frequently to marketing meetings in both exchanges and growth opportunities. We specialized in all areas of investments including but not limited to apartments, office, retail, warehouse, industrial, flex space, large and small free standing buildings, development and for some we will also work in farm and ranch if necessary.

EM Property Management -
- Focus on management of retial, apartments, and office for selected clients. My goal is to perserve the asset and make improvements as necessary while sticking to a tight budget. I have worked from value added opportunity to new construction and finishout.

BUX Investments -
- Is a limited partnership with ownership and managmenet ranging in apartments, retail, office, warehouse. Primary focus on value added opportunity, consisting mostly of management issues and less in structural rehab.

Current Organizations -
- Below is a little about who I am involved with.
- CCIM Candidate
- Attendee/Guest to Society of Exchange Counselors
- Leadership of San Angelo Graduate
- Young Business Professionals of San Angelo
- Board of Directors The Bank and Trust
- Board of Directors Economic Development in Downtown San Angelo
- Board of Directors San Angelo Country Club
- Tournament Chairman San Angelo Country Club
- San Angelo West Rotarian - Past President
- Paul Harris Fellow
TAR, TAA, NAR, REE, and I am sure a few I am forgetting.

We will have a web site operational within weeks, please see our ads and property listings at steveeustisrealesate.com.

Personal vs Career

As I sit around this afternoon I am tossing thoughts between work and personal. We have a new baby coming to join us within weeks, this is #2, also a boy. I can't help but feel completely excited. However, I have spent the last several years building a real estate career based on commercial property investments and managment. I have now been in commercial real estate for almost 6 years, I have just now decided to persue my CCIM designation (currently completed 101 and 102), I am a candidate for the SEC, and will take my broker's test within weeks. The next several months should be interesting as we explore the balance between wanting to spend every second with family and at the same time trying to acomplish 60+ hour weeks of work that will indeed begin to pile up. The bottom line is that I will achieve both but how I do this and still find time to sleep will be the challenge. I plan on being there for my family every step of the way and providing for them the best I can, I also do the same for each and every client I represent through selling, buying, or managing. I believe it is important to take care of all of my clients as though they were family (in many cases we feel that way). I hope everyone can understand the difficult times ahead as we work through a tough economy and my own personal sleepless nights. I would just like to add that I will never let my family or my clients down, I will always do my best to find time to take care of both. I will be adding several items to this in the coming months to help anyone who views this understand how I have worked through the tough times and treated everyone with the respect and attention they deserve. Hopefully I can help others who run into these situations in life.