Commercial Real Estate Recovery or still headed Down???

A very intense question with views from both sides. Daily I am emailed with views stating that the worst is behind us followed by emails that state the worst is still to come. The problem with the cycle in today's time is that it is not a repeat of anything we have seen in the past. Most Economists can track changes and recovery by looking at historic information, this time however is more difficult, it does not appear to be taking the same approach as recessions before. An article from Recon just stated the economy is beginning to show signs of improvement while only 15 minutes later I received an email from sperry Van Ness Commercial stating "Commercial Real Estate is like a slow motion train wreck". I believe that there are some signs of improvement, however my personal opinion is that the worst is yet to come for some industries. Has anyone stopped to think about true unemployment lately? We are reporting figures of 8-10% but actually that does not account for the millions who have run through the cycle but have not found employment yet, they are treated as employed and lost in the mix. I talked to some people recently who believe actual unemployment to be in the upper teens as high as 17%.

Commercial Real Estate per the ICSC State of the Industry has not seen the bottom. Projections indicate that national and upper end retail will not bottom out for a possible 18 months followed by an additional 6 months before recovery begins. We are continuing to see large amounts of foreclosure across the nation and the number continues to rise almost daily. I believe that the Vulture Opportunities will begin to surface in the next 6 months and cash will again be king. I am starting to see opportunity and as others believe it is only going to increase in value added opportunities and short sell. As for myself, I believe all industries will experience cap rate and price adjustments in 2010, how much is yet to be determined.